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willthegavlegoatburn2026
LiveBase · USDC

Will the Gävle goat burn in 2026?

62%chance it burns
Yes 62%No 39%
Volume
$30,412
Liquidity
$11,840
Traders
412
Closes in
—

Odds history

30 days · implied probability

Order book

YES · USDC
PriceSize
66.0¢1.2K
65.0¢880
64.0¢2.2K
63.0¢640
62.0¢3.1K
Spread1.0¢mid 61.5¢
61.0¢900
60.0¢1.4K
59.0¢760
58.0¢2.3K
57.0¢1.1K
Buying YES takes asks · selling hits bids

Recent trades

live
  • Buy Yes62.0¢ · 24012s
  • Buy No38.0¢ · 18048s
  • Buy Yes61.0¢ · 9001m
  • Buy No39.0¢ · 753m
  • Buy Yes60.0¢ · 4106m
  • Buy Yes60.0¢ · 1209m
  • Buy No40.0¢ · 62014m

How this resolves

Full rules

Yes if the goat is set on fire and has to come down before its scheduled removal. No if it survives — or is destroyed any other way. A car (2021) or a storm (2025) is not a fire. Confirmed by two of three published sources.

The goat has a history

All 60 years
  • 1966 · burned
  • 2021 · not fire
  • 2025 · not fire

Questions people ask

Will the Gävle goat burn in 2026?
Nobody knows — that is the point. This market aggregates what traders are willing to pay for Yes and No shares. It is not a forecast and it is not a prediction from the operators.
When does the 2026 Gävle goat go up?
The goat is traditionally erected on the first day of Advent, which falls on 29 November 2026, at Slottstorget in Gävle, Sweden.
What counts as the goat burning?
Only fire that forces the structure to be dismantled or rebuilt before its scheduled removal. Damage by a car (2021) or a storm (2025) does not count. The full rules and source list are published before trading opens.
Is this custodial? Does it hold my funds?
No. Your USDC sits in a smart contract on Base and only your wallet can move it. There is no account balance to withdraw from and no operator key that can touch your position.
What fees are there?
No protocol fee, no rake, no cut of any payout. You pay only the network fee for your own transactions on Base, directly to the blockchain.