LiveBase · USDC
Will the Gävle goat burn in 2026?
62%chance it burns
Yes 62%No 39%
- Volume
- $30,412
- Liquidity
- $11,840
- Traders
- 412
- Closes in
- —
Odds history
30 days · implied probabilityOrder book
YES · USDCPriceSize
66.0¢1.2K
65.0¢880
64.0¢2.2K
63.0¢640
62.0¢3.1K
Spread1.0¢mid 61.5¢
61.0¢900
60.0¢1.4K
59.0¢760
58.0¢2.3K
57.0¢1.1K
Recent trades
live- Buy Yes62.0¢ · 24012s
- Buy No38.0¢ · 18048s
- Buy Yes61.0¢ · 9001m
- Buy No39.0¢ · 753m
- Buy Yes60.0¢ · 4106m
- Buy Yes60.0¢ · 1209m
- Buy No40.0¢ · 62014m
How this resolves
Full rulesYes if the goat is set on fire and has to come down before its scheduled removal. No if it survives — or is destroyed any other way. A car (2021) or a storm (2025) is not a fire. Confirmed by two of three published sources.
The goat has a history
All 60 years- 1966 · burned
- 2021 · not fire
- 2025 · not fire
Questions people ask
- Will the Gävle goat burn in 2026?
- Nobody knows — that is the point. This market aggregates what traders are willing to pay for Yes and No shares. It is not a forecast and it is not a prediction from the operators.
- When does the 2026 Gävle goat go up?
- The goat is traditionally erected on the first day of Advent, which falls on 29 November 2026, at Slottstorget in Gävle, Sweden.
- What counts as the goat burning?
- Only fire that forces the structure to be dismantled or rebuilt before its scheduled removal. Damage by a car (2021) or a storm (2025) does not count. The full rules and source list are published before trading opens.
- Is this custodial? Does it hold my funds?
- No. Your USDC sits in a smart contract on Base and only your wallet can move it. There is no account balance to withdraw from and no operator key that can touch your position.
- What fees are there?
- No protocol fee, no rake, no cut of any payout. You pay only the network fee for your own transactions on Base, directly to the blockchain.