Resolution rules — 2026

1. The question

Will the Gävle goat burn in 2026? Betting closes 1 Jan 2027 · 00:00 CET.

2. Yes — the exact conditions

The market resolves Yes only if all three are true:

• The goat erected at Slottstorget for Advent 2026 is set on fire (arson or accidental; intent is irrelevant).
• As a result of that fire, the structure must be dismantled or rebuilt before its scheduled removal — i.e. it cannot remain on display in its erected form.
• This is confirmed by at least two of the three sources listed in §4.

3. No — everything else, including these

The market resolves No if the goat survives to its scheduled removal, and in every one of these cases:

• Damaged by a vehicle. In 2021 the goat was hit by a car. That is not a fire. No.
• Brought down by weather. In 2025 Storm Johannes felled it on 27 December. That is not a fire. No.
• Vandalised without fire — knocked over, cut, sprayed, dismantled, stolen, eaten by birds. No.
• A small fire that does not require removal. If someone singes a leg and the goat stays up, that is No. The threshold is structural removal, not smoke.
• The goat is never erected — see the void rule in §5.

4. Sources (fixed, published, non-negotiable)

• The official Visit Gävle / Gävle kommun live feed for Slottstorget.
• An official statement from Gävle kommun or Visit Gävle, or the goat’s official accounts.
• Reporting by SVT or Aftonbladet.

Two of three must agree. If the live feed fails but two text sources confirm, the market resolves on the text sources. Screenshots, archive links and timestamps are published in the evidence log before resolution finalises.

5. Timing, and the void path

• A fire after betting closes still counts. If the goat burns in January before removal, the market resolves Yes. Betting closes on 1 January; the event does not.
• Resolution deadline: 31 January 2027.
• Void: if the market has not been resolved 30 days after that deadline — or if the goat is never erected for 2026 at all — every position can be refunded at face value by anyone, permissionlessly, by calling the contract’s void function. Nobody needs our permission and nobody can block it.

6. How the call is made

Resolution is proposed on-chain with a hash of the evidence bundle. It then waits in a timelock during which the proposal is publicly visible on this site before any funds move. Anyone can check the sources in that window and object publicly. When the timelock expires, resolution finalises and winners redeem.

7. Evidence log

Every resolution proposal and its evidence bundle are published here with the on-chain hash, so the record cannot be altered after the fact. This log is empty until the market resolves.

8. Known ways to lose money here

• You can lose your entire stake — see the risk disclosure.
• There is no market maker. If nobody bids, you cannot sell.
• Manipulating the real-world outcome is a crime. Wallets involved in arson would be public.